Looking around, it is easy to get the feeling that nobody really knows how much oil is left - or at least, no-one who is willing to speak in earnest.
According to A Crude Awakening, a documentary about the impending energy crisis, to be released in the UK on 9 November, we have already reached peak oil production and face an imminent and dramatic change to the lifestyles that we in the West have become so accustomed to.
The film takes a little while getting to the point. It's not immediately obvious what story the directors are trying to tell. But the early clips of 1950s petroleum ads demonstrating in cartoons and stylish black and white that petrochemicals underlie every consumer good we know and love ??? from the telephone to the synthetic silk n??glig??e ??? are very amusing.
Gradually a narrative emerges, eloquently put by one professor who was asked by a student if his grandchildren would ever fly in a plane. The answer could very well be "no".
The point is our current lifestyle is unsustainable and the world is badly in need of politicians who will be brave enough to put research into alternative sources of energy at the top of their agenda.
The film misses a few tricks. How much longer oil reserves could last if appliances were made more energy efficient is not addressed.
There's little attempt to actually put a date on when peak oil will be or was reached. Every alternative energy solution is quickly brushed aside except possibly hydrogen, which we are told is "easily 40 years away".
We are left wondering what the answer to the problem is.The movie feels a bit one-sided with none of the interviewees challenging the theory that there is virtually no or very little oil left to be extracted. But overall, it's compelling viewing and definitely serves its purpose: to help those who remain unaware of the problem wake up and smell the coffee.
Since watching A Crude Awakening last night, I've had a quick scan around to see what various groups say about the peak oil hypothesis. This is the theory, first put forward by Shell geologist M. King Hubbert in the 1950s, that at some point global oil production will peak and start an interminable descent as the last remaining reserves are sucked dry.
A report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2005 declared that "There is no shortage of oil and gas in the ground" and "the hydrocarbon resources in place around the world are sufficiently abundant to sustain likely growth in the global energy system for the foreseeable future".
Shortly after the IEA report came out, the Peak Oil Netherlands Foundation issued its own version of the story, which was supported by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands. Their conclusion was in stark contrast to the IEA's: peak oil, they said would be reached sometime between 2012 and 2017, possibly before.
Then, in July this year, the IEA released its Medium Term Oil Market Report. This time, it didn't look so sure:"Certainly our forecast suggests that the non-OPEC, conventional crude component of global production appears, for now, to have reached an effective plateau, rather than a peak. [...] While hydrocarbon resources are finite, nonetheless issues of access to reserves, prevailing investment regime and availability of upstream infrastructure and capital seem greater barriers to medium-term growth than limits to the resource base itself."
The conclusion, as Salon pointed out, seemed to be that oil reserves are still plentiful but our capacity to extract it is reaching its limits. Part of the problem lies in the fact that companies are increasingly looking towards unconventional sources of oil, such as tar sands, which are more difficult and require more energy to "mine".
According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, production of conventional oil has already peaked ??? that happened two years ago in 2005.There's no room here to go into more detail, but if you're interested, the Energy Bulletin has got an interesting expose of the issue. Obviously, it's important to remember that many people ??? not least the oil-producing OPEC nations ??? have a vested interested in demonstrating that reserves are still plentiful.
A Crude Awakening is produced and directed by Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack.
According to A Crude Awakening, a documentary about the impending energy crisis, to be released in the UK on 9 November, we have already reached peak oil production and face an imminent and dramatic change to the lifestyles that we in the West have become so accustomed to.
The film takes a little while getting to the point. It's not immediately obvious what story the directors are trying to tell. But the early clips of 1950s petroleum ads demonstrating in cartoons and stylish black and white that petrochemicals underlie every consumer good we know and love ??? from the telephone to the synthetic silk n??glig??e ??? are very amusing.
Gradually a narrative emerges, eloquently put by one professor who was asked by a student if his grandchildren would ever fly in a plane. The answer could very well be "no".
The point is our current lifestyle is unsustainable and the world is badly in need of politicians who will be brave enough to put research into alternative sources of energy at the top of their agenda.
The film misses a few tricks. How much longer oil reserves could last if appliances were made more energy efficient is not addressed.
There's little attempt to actually put a date on when peak oil will be or was reached. Every alternative energy solution is quickly brushed aside except possibly hydrogen, which we are told is "easily 40 years away".
We are left wondering what the answer to the problem is.The movie feels a bit one-sided with none of the interviewees challenging the theory that there is virtually no or very little oil left to be extracted. But overall, it's compelling viewing and definitely serves its purpose: to help those who remain unaware of the problem wake up and smell the coffee.
Since watching A Crude Awakening last night, I've had a quick scan around to see what various groups say about the peak oil hypothesis. This is the theory, first put forward by Shell geologist M. King Hubbert in the 1950s, that at some point global oil production will peak and start an interminable descent as the last remaining reserves are sucked dry.
A report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2005 declared that "There is no shortage of oil and gas in the ground" and "the hydrocarbon resources in place around the world are sufficiently abundant to sustain likely growth in the global energy system for the foreseeable future".
Shortly after the IEA report came out, the Peak Oil Netherlands Foundation issued its own version of the story, which was supported by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands. Their conclusion was in stark contrast to the IEA's: peak oil, they said would be reached sometime between 2012 and 2017, possibly before.
Then, in July this year, the IEA released its Medium Term Oil Market Report. This time, it didn't look so sure:"Certainly our forecast suggests that the non-OPEC, conventional crude component of global production appears, for now, to have reached an effective plateau, rather than a peak. [...] While hydrocarbon resources are finite, nonetheless issues of access to reserves, prevailing investment regime and availability of upstream infrastructure and capital seem greater barriers to medium-term growth than limits to the resource base itself."
The conclusion, as Salon pointed out, seemed to be that oil reserves are still plentiful but our capacity to extract it is reaching its limits. Part of the problem lies in the fact that companies are increasingly looking towards unconventional sources of oil, such as tar sands, which are more difficult and require more energy to "mine".
According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, production of conventional oil has already peaked ??? that happened two years ago in 2005.There's no room here to go into more detail, but if you're interested, the Energy Bulletin has got an interesting expose of the issue. Obviously, it's important to remember that many people ??? not least the oil-producing OPEC nations ??? have a vested interested in demonstrating that reserves are still plentiful.
A Crude Awakening is produced and directed by Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack.
